NORC at University of Chicago Updates “The Forgotten Middle” Study

NORC at the University of Chicago has published an update to the National Investment Center (NIC) study “The Forgotten Middle.” Published in Health Affairs in 2019, the original study used 2014 Health and Retirement Survey (HRS) data to forecast the demographics, size, needs, and financial resources of middle-income older adults aged 75 and over through the year 2029. The update from NORC, a nonpartisan research organization focusing on social and data sciences, reviews 2018 HRS data and updates the analysis to include older adults who will be aged 75 and over through 2033.

The update suggests that by 2033, the number of middle-income older adults (aged 75 and over) will double to more than 16 million people. Key, high-level findings include:

• 22 percent of those middle-income older adults will be people of color.
• The majority (54 percent) will have at least three health, medical, or cognitive challenges that make it hard to live independently, and many will rely on paid caregivers as more remain unmarried without family caregivers nearby.
• 75 percent of middle-income older adults (about 11.5 million individuals) will not be able to afford assisted living care unless they sell their home, and 39 percent will not be able to afford it even if they do sell their home.

Contact: Annalyse Komoroske Denio, akomoroskedenio@leadingageny.org, 518-867-8866